Fig. 2

ROC curves of created all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and vascular dementia risk prediction models for the total cohort. ROC curves for CAIDE model 1 (including age, education, sex, systolic blood pressure, BMI, total cholesterol, and physical activity, and CAIDE model 2 (additionally including APOE ε4 carrier status) are depicted in black while curves of the CAIDE models plus inflammatory biomarkers chosen by LASSO regression (cf. Table 3) are depicted in grey. AUC and 95% bootstrap confidence intervals are provided with the respective graphs. The AUCs were obtained in a nested case-cohort study with n = 1,356 healthy controls and n = 562, n = 173, and n = 199 cases for all-cause dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and vascular dementia, respectively. Abbreviations: BMI Body mass index, APOE Apolipoprotein, LASSO Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator